The moderation in U.S. payroll growth in 2019 likely reflects a maturing labor market—one that is reaching full employment. But where does this leave Fed policy?
Tag Archives: Fed
Exaggerated U.S. recession fears?
We are skeptical of the signal from the yield curve now given the likely distortion from non-U.S. as well as U.S. QE and negative bond yields in much of the world.
Mid-Cycle Adjustment?
The case for rate cuts is much weaker now than in previous mid-cycle Fed easings.
U.S. inflation data call for modest—not major—Fed easing
The latest data, and still-accommodative financial conditions, suggest the Fed does not have to cut rates aggressively.